Improvements of Fire Fuels Attributes Maps by Integrating Field Inventories, Low Density ALS, and Satellite Data in Complex Mediterranean Forests

One of the most determining factors in forest fire behaviour is to characterize forest fuel attributes. We investigated a complex Mediterranean forest type—mountainous Abies pinsapo–Pinus–Quercus–Juniperus with distinct structures, such as broadleaf and needleleaf forests—to integrate field data, low density Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS), and multispectral satellite data for estimating forest fuel attributes. The three-step procedure consisted of: (i) estimating three key forest fuel attributes (biomass, structural complexity and hygroscopicity), (ii) proposing a synthetic index that encompasses the three attributes to quantify the potential capacity for fire propagation, and (iii) generating a cartograph of potential propagation capacity. Our main findings showed that Biomass–ALS calibration models performed well for Abies pinsapo (R2 = 0.69), Juniperus spp. (R2 = 0.70), Pinus halepensis (R2 = 0.59), Pinus spp. mixed (R2 = 0.80), and Pinus spp.–Juniperus spp. (R2 = 0.59) forests. The highest values of biomass were obtained for Pinus halepensis forests (190.43 Mg ha−1). The structural complexity of forest fuels was assessed by calculating the LiDAR Height Diversity Index (LHDI) with regard to the distribution and vertical diversity of the vegetation with the highest values of LHDI, which corresponded to Pinus spp.–evergreen (2.56), Quercus suber (2.54), and Pinus mixed (2.49) forests, with the minimum being obtained for Juniperus (1.37) and shrubs (1.11). High values of the Fuel Desiccation Index (IDM) were obtained for those areas dominated by shrubs (−396.71). Potential Behaviour Biomass Index (ICB) values were high or very high for 11.86% of the area and low or very low for 77.07%. The Potential Behaviour Structural Complexity Index (ICE) was high or very high for 37.23% of the area, and low or very low for 46.35%, and the Potential Behaviour Fuel Desiccation Index (ICD) was opposite to the ICB and ICE, with high or very high values for areas with low biomass and low structural complexity. Potential Fire Behaviour Index (ICP) values were high or very high for 38.25% of the area, and low or very low values for 45.96%. High or very high values of ICP were related to Pinus halepensis and Pinus pinaster forests. Remote sensing has been applied to improve fuel attribute characterisation and cartography, highlighting the utility of integrating multispectral and ALS data to estimate those attributes that are more closely related to the spatial organisation of vegetation

Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa

Abstract Previous research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced (14.5%) once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, 50% of the 37 shade tree species modelled will experience a decrease in geographic rate extent by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of shade tree species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions